Griz Bear Comments: : So, we're in uncertain times
Posted on Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Folks have been hesitant to use words like “recession” and “depression”
to describe the economic downturn in our nation and the world. Instead,
many have described the situation by saying we are living in “uncertain
times.”
Uncertain times! That seems like a bit of a misnomer. Everybody knows
the economy is in a downturn. What’s so uncertain about that? The only
thing that’s uncertain is how long it will last, how deep it will go or
whether the current recession could lead to depression. At least it’s
now certain that the economy is uncertain!
It would seem to me that the real “uncertain times” were back in the
days when everything was booming and people had no clue that the boom
would end, the stocks would fall and jobs would be lost. When
everything seems certain, it’s really quite uncertain.
Of course, those who study history — I just have to make this point
repeatedly — would have known that we were in uncertain times long
before the recent economic turndown. Any student of history will learn
that we can be certain we live in uncertain times all the time. Even
little, apparently-insignificant things can change the course of
history forever.
And, if you would have asked me, I could have told you of personal
economic recession and depression for quite a number of years. I’m just
hoping I didn’t drag the whole world into recession by trying to
tighten my belt and buy a little less.
I kept trying to convince Mrs. Griz that we needed to think financially
conservative because of the shrinking value of our earnings, but she
never liked it when I spoke of such things, and especially when she was
about to go out garage saling.
Of course, it was a good thing that she went out and bought things at
deflated prices instead of going to the mall and paying inflated prices
for the same stuff, so I can’t complain too much. She always got her
money’s worth and more, even if what she bought didn’t seem all that
important to me. And on some of the trips I took with her, I bought
stuff too, so I just can’t say much with out incriminating myself.
And in these uncertain times, one never knows the future value of junk.
A 25-cent expenditure today could be worth thousands of dollars
tomorrow. Of course, we would have sold it for a dime a few days before
it became worth something.
There was a silver lining in the fact that economic recession and
depression hit me before it hit the rest of the world. When the stocks
fell, my retirement savings were little affected. My retirement plan is
still to work until I die — and if not, I will probably just have to
die because I’m not working.
Anyway, I think we can be certain we’re in a recession now, because the
economy has been in a downturn for a long-enough period of time to meet
the criteria of most definitions. I don’t suppose anyone will be
calling it a depression for a while. Though, before the Great
Depression, any economic downturn was called a depression rather than a
recession — economic definitions were a bit more simple years ago.
The new definitions of recession and depression are somewhat confusing.
To be in a recession, the gross domestic product must be significantly
down for two quarters. Thus, one can be in recession but can’t really
call it that until at least a half year later.
Depression is now defined as a downturn of 10 percent or more in the
GDP. Of course, we could also be in a depression for some time before
the figures come in and anyone knows it. Perhaps the old saying that it
was a recession if your neighbor lost his job but a depression if you
lost yours is about as good as any.
What people really are trying to avoid these days is saying the “D”
word because it scares people. We’ve added the “R” word so people
wouldn’t use the “D” word, but people don’t like to use the “R” word
either. So now we’re just living in “uncertain times.” But then again,
aren’t we always?
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